Skip to main content.
24 June, 2011

Equal Weight and Asymmetric Uncertainty

Not for the first time, I’m unsure what the Equal Weight View says about a case. Here it is.

Jack and Jill and Microsoft Excel

Jack and Jill both have the same evidence; they know that a paricular table has 83 rows and 97 columns. They both try to figure out how many cells are in the table. They know that the number of cells quals the number of rows times the number of columns. Jill concludes that it has 8051 cells. Jack can’t conclude anything about the number of cells. He thinks it might be 8051, but it might be something else. When they are each told about the other’s conclusions (or lack thereof), what should their final conclusions be?

A position half-way between Jack’s view and Jill’s view is presumably something like a view that the table probably has 8051 cells, but that it is a serious possibility that the table has a differen number of cells.

But surely Jill shouldn’t move her views in that way, should she? If she should hold firm here, is this just a counterexample to (some versions of) the Equal Weight View?

Posted by Brian Weatherson at 9:00 am

5 Comments »