I was rereading Adam Elga’s paper on On overrating oneself… and knowing it, and it gave me a thought about some possible challenge trades in the NFL.

I think there’s plenty of pairs of teams that, going into the start of the season, each think they are better than the other member of the pair. (Some of the things Adam says suggest that he thinks one or other of them must be irrational, but I think this could be perfectly rational.) So from each team’s perspective, they expect to be better off having the other team’s draft picks. Hence there’s a possible win-win trade with the teams simply swapping all their draft picks with each other.

I guess there’s some rules against this kind of trade, but I imagine they could be circumvented. E.g. during training camp next year the Redskins trade a couple of guys about to be cut and all their 2005 draft picks to the Giants in exchange for a couple of guys about to be cut and all their 2005 draft picks. This would undermine the purpose of the draft, but I think it would be great seeing which teams make the most ridiculous overestimations. (“Yes Mr Bidwell, I think there’s a great chance the Cardinals could finish with a better record than the Patriots next year.”)