The Ashes

If you Google for “greatest rivalry in sports”:http://www.google.com/search?q=%22the+greatest+rivalry+in+sports%22&hl=en&lr=&c2coff=1&safe=off&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&start=0&sa=N today you’ll get a lot of references to the Ohio State-Michigan series (largely because of last week’s game) several references to Red Sox-Yankees, and a few other college pairings. From a global perspective, these all look faintly ridiculous. Does any of these rivalries really compare to Real Madrid-Barcelona for history, or Celtic-Rangers for intensity?

It’s probably futile to say which of these is *the* greatest. But I think on the list should be the series “that starts in a few hours”:http://usa.cricinfo.com/db/ARCHIVE/2006-07/ENG_IN_AUS/.

When I was growing up I heard stories about schoolboys listening on small radios in all hours of the night to the exploits of Bradman as he walloped Englishmen on the other side of the world. The technology needed to get a (internet) radio broadcast to upstate New York from half a world a way is a little more complicated, and a laptop computer can’t be placed as snugly by a bed as a crystal set radio can, but the effect might be much the same. There’s some chance we’ll be able to get internet video of the games, but I’m rather sceptical of the quality of the pictures we’ll get. In any case, it’s hard to imagine spending 25 days cramped in front of a computer screen watching the pictures when there’s work to be done. So there’ll be a lot of cricket on the radio for the next few weeks.

This could be the last hurrah for a lot of great Australian cricketers. In terms of team success, probably the greatest of the bunch has been Glenn McGrath. Perhaps it is just because he’s been injured at the ‘right’ time, but he’s managed to avoid playing in many losing causes. More precisely, it’s been 2 years since he was last on a losing Test team (in Chennai in Nov 2004), 5 years since he was last on a team that lost a Test match before the series was decided (in Mumbai in March 2001), and 10 years since he was on a team that lost such a Test match in Australia (the Boxing Day Test in Melbourne against the West Indies in 1996). (I think I checked all the relevant Tests for that last sentence, but I could be mistaken.) Now I’ll be happily surprised if those streaks manage to survive this summer. And of course McGrath was on the team that drew when it needed a win at The Oval last year. But while they last the streaks deserve recognition as quite remarkable stats. How many top level sports figures can say that his team haven’t lost a home game they needed to win (or even potentially needed to win) for 10 years?

This could well be McGrath’s last Test series, and he will be deeply missed. I can’t imagine I’ll ever see again another bowling combination at all like Warne and McGrath. And I hope we get to see McGrath continue to be involved with the game in some way. His intelligence and wit would make a pleasant change from much of what passes for cricket commentary in Australia.

If you read newspapers, blogs, message boards etc about the series, the sense seems to be that Australia is favoured, but it will be a close contest. If you instead pay attention just to the betting markets, no such sense of closeness arises. Australia is a short-priced favourite to win back the Ashes (about $1.20 for a $1 investment), with the most favoured series outcome being a 4-0 demolition.

I suspect I’ll regret this, but my prediction is that the markets are indeed wise in this occasion. Australia were dominant at home long before they were dominant abroad, and I suspect they will stay dominant at home long after they cease being dominant abroad. And with Hussey in the side, and MacGill sure to be included for several games, the Australian team selection looks sounder than it has in a long time. But I think the markets are wrong to price in a draw; there just isn’t enough rain around these days to stop these matches going the distance, and I think both teams right now are better at bowling than batting. So I’ll say 4-1 to Australia.

If there’s one omen that looks good for England, it’s that this series seems to resemble none so much as the “2003-04 India tour”:http://aus.cricinfo.com/link_to_database/ARCHIVE/2003-04/IND_IN_AUS/. In that case the guests had recently beaten Australia in a close fought, and fantastically played, series abroad. One of Australia’s all time greats, Steve Waugh, was retiring and wanted to go out with a win. But dull pitches and duller bowling, combined with some astounding batting by the visitors led them to get a drawn series. (And if there was to be a winner of that series, it was more likely to be the visitors.) Could the same happen here? Well, in that series Australia had neither McGrath nor Warne. This time they have them both. And as good as the English batsmen are, they don’t exactly conjure up the same fear as a lineup containing Dravid, Laxman, Tendulkar, Ganguly and Sehwag. Here’s hoping that’s enough of a difference.