Odds’n’Ends

After a small delay due somewhat to my work habits and somewhat to the lack of material to work with, the papers blog is up today. Adam Morton features two short papers on conditionals.

There’s an interesting discussion going on around the web about whether there is a bias against conservatives in academia. The best piece so far is by Timothy Burke, and the pieces by John Holbo and Belle Waring are well worth reading too. I have a fair bit of sympathy for the line David Velleman was taking in the comments thread on John’s piece, but I don’t know how widespread the issue he discusses is. (This isn’t a snarky “I don’t know” meaning “not”, as I might sometimes use. It really is an “I don’t know” meaning “I don’t know”. The area of specialisation breakdown of US English and History departments is outside even my range of knowledge.)

I don’t know whether this spam fighter that Chris Potts links to could possible work, but maybe it’s worth trying. Since it’s apparently against the law to kill spammers, or even wittily threaten to do so, alternative measures are in order.

Supacrush has some good suggestions for avoiding procrastination. If you want to avoid actually doing work, putting yourself in a position of having to choose between incommensurable values is, I find, very effective. Admittedly this isn’t the only work-avoiding technique that works, but it really is very good.

Knowing Chemistry

Or, Part CCLXXXIV of my long-running argument that knowledge requires much less by way of epistemic goodies than most epistemologists think.

Brad DeLong is teaching his 10 year old daughter chemistry.

bq. The Ten-Year-Old has thoughtfully gone off and is drawing pictures of how the eight electrons in the valence shell might “orbit” the nucleus, and wondering why eight electrons in the valence shell is a particularly stable configuration.

bq. She doesn’t know Coulomb’s force law. She knows no orbital mechanics. She definitely does not know that the solar-system model of the classical atom is self-contradictory. She knows no spherical harmonics. She knows no quantum mechanics. Yet, still, she now knows more about electrons and their impact on chemistry than anybody in the world knew a century ago, back before Niels Bohr.

All very cute and all, but shouldn’t some epistemologist be coming along around now saying that if she has that many false beliefs at the base of her chemical beliefs, then none of the superstructure really constitutes knowledge. After all, inference from inconsistent premises is hardly a reliable form of belief formation now, is it?

Explanation

I’m a fair way out of my comfortable depth here, so take this with a larger grain of salt than usual. And I make no claims whatsoever about originality – for all I know this could have been covered fifteen times over in the relevant literature. (As might most things I write.) But I thought it was interesting enough to write up.

The question at issue concerns some points that came up because I happened to be simultaneously reading Michael Strevens’s work on explanation and idealisation (not online) alongside John Sutton’s book on models in economics. I might post something later about how one of Sutton’s cases appears to raise a difficulty for Strevens’s theory, but let’s start on a friendlier note: one of the cases he discusses seems really good news for Strevens’s theory.

We start with the biased auction game – one I’ll call __Bias__. (This game is discussed in detail by Sutton.)

bq. There are two players – Wise and Unwise. An amount of money __v__ is picked from [0,1] at random and placed in an envelope. Wise is told how much money is in the envelope, and Unwise is not. The two players are then invited to bid on the envelope. This will be a ‘single-shot’ auction – each player gets to make one bid, and the higher bid wins. Neither player must bid, and there is no reserve price. What does/should each player do?

The Nash equilibrium for __Bias__ is a little surprising. Wise should bid __v__/2, and Unwise should bid an amount chosen at random from [0,{1/2}]. Wise’s expected gain is, as you can tell, __v__/2, and Unwise’s expected gain is 0. Still, if Unwise does not bid the game cannot go into equilibrium, because then Wise can bid an arbitrarily small amount. So she must bid, even though this has no expected benefit for her.

Now assume that an instance of __Bias__ is played, with each player knowing they will not play again, and Wise and Unwise do just as expected. (Assume we are shown not just Unwise’s bid, but her procedure for generating the bid.) We ask:

bq. Why did Unwise bid?

Allegedly explanatory answer:

bq. Because the only Nash equilibrium for the game includes a bid by her.

Is this a good explanation? I’d say, as it stands, no.

Is this a causal explanation? Well, no. If Unwise did not bid, then Wise could have bid an arbitrarily low amount, then Unwise count have made an expected profit by bidding. So there’s a chain of reasoning that leads to Unwise bidding. But it isn’t a __causal__ explanation unless we are told this is what Unwise thought, and that simply isn’t in evidence.

Is this a unifying explanation? Not as it stands, but it easily could be. Many aspects of game behaviour can be unified under the assumption that the players select options that make Nash equilibria possible. But that doesn’t seem to make it a good explanation, unless we have specific evidence that players were motivated by a desire to move towards Nash equilibria.

__Prima facie__ this looks like bad news for unificationist theories of explanation. But turning that into a full objection might take actual, er, research about what actual unificationists say, which has never been TAR’s strongest feature.

Just in case it isn’t obvious, note that the question asked here is not __Why did Unwise maximise her expected utility?__ I think Bayesian answers to that question are easy. The question is why she chose one particular utility maximising strategy (bidding with the bid value chosen probabilistically) rather than not bid, which has just as high an expected utility.

(I should have mentioned when I first wrote this up that the ideas here owe quite a bit to comments made in my philosophy of economics seminar, especially by Alyssa Ney.)

Lewis Reading

I didn’t mean the comments thread below to turn into an outbreak of serious Lewis study, but #1 Bad Boy asked an interesting question.

bq. What papers or books do you think are essential for a beginning graduate student to read of Lewis’s. I know this is probably a long list, but try keep it to 5 papers and 2 books

I guessed papers were less than books, so 1 book and 6 papers would be OK.

bq. __On the Plurality of Worlds__ – 1986
“Psychophysical and Theoretical Identifications” – 1972
“The Paradoxes of Time Travel” – 1976
“Counterfactual Dependence and Time’s Arrow” – 1979
“New Work for a Theory of Universals” – 1983
“Reduction of Mind” – 1994
“Causation as Influence” – 2000

This is obviously reflecting my interests a lot, so others may have different ideas. So this is a little challenge for the weekend, how would you answer Bad Boy’s question? One ground rule – no including the collections of papers as books. Otherwise Philosophical Papers volume 1 and Papers in Metaphysics and Epistemology make it too easy.

By the way, Papers in M&E (or __The Bible for Young Metaphysicians__ as I like to think of it) is fully available online at Amazon.

Lewis and Strauss

With the release of the wonderful AJP volume in honour of David Lewis, it is worth pausing to consider the future of Lewisian philosophy. Others who know enough about history that they aren’t doomed to repeat it might be able to say something serious here about how Lewis’s immediate legacy will compare to other greats. For better or worse, that’s not what I can do with any plausibility. But implausibility has never stopped me before.

So let’s start with a simple induction. Many intellectual giants suffer the indignity of having doctrines named after them that they never endorsed. This leads latter day scholars to come along asking “Was X an X-ian”. This question has been asked about Hume, Marx and Keynes, amongst others I’m sure. By induction, the same thing will happen to Lewis eventually. It’s just a matter of when. So here’s the first question.

bq. How long until the first “Was Lewis a Lewisian” paper?

I’m putting the over/under line at 2015, and taking the under. (If only because I can write the paper in 2014 if no one else does.)

You might be tempted to think that no such paper could be written, because Lewis’s writing is so clear that no one could attribute meanings to him that he didn’t actually endorse. The argument form here is historically dubious. Russell too was a clear writer, but compare Russell’s theory of “Russell” with the Russellian theory of “Russell”. Yet I come not to question the validity of this argument, but rather its soundness.

Lewis appeared to write clear, transparent philosophical prose. But it is clear to those with eyes to see it, that many layers of meaning lay hidden beneath those welcoming texts.

For instance, the folk take Lewis’s masterpiece On the Plurality of Worlds to be an argument for the plurality of worlds. And this clearly is the exoteric meaning of Lewis’s text. But could a thinker of Lewis’s quality really have believed in this metaphysical monstrosity? It is hard to credit. The real meaning must lay deeper.

For a long time I thought that the book was obviously an argument for the existence of God. Lewis conspicuously fails to discuss theological ersatzism – the view that ersatz possible worlds are really constituents of the mind of God. Given the devastating attacks Lewis launches on rival theories, and the utter implausibility of Lewis’s preferred alternative, I thought the esoteric message was clear. Philosophy needs a theory of modality. Theological ersatzism is the only viable theory of modality, the others being disposed of in Lewis’s book. Theological ersatzism needs God. Hence God exists. A fittingly impressive argument for a great thinker’s masterpiece.

But, and let this be a lesson in how intricate Lewis’s texts can be, I too had been deceived. The clue I missed was from the paper Putnam’s Paradox. Lewis ever so clearly lays out Putnam’s ‘paradoxical’ argument for anti-realism. And then, in his customary fashion, provides a solution so outlandish that the trained scholar is clearly meant to reject it. He even acknowledges that the solution bears the trademarks of medieval scholastic corruption of Greek thought.

This paper poses a puzzle though. Why, if Lewis thought Putnam’s argument was sound, is he so hostile to Putnam in the paper? Returning to Plurality makes everything clear. As the title of Part 2, “Paradox in Paradise…” indicates, Lewis thinks the paradox spreads throughout paradise, and infects all talk related to modality. And as he says in Part 1, ever so slyly using the literal voice, this covers all manner of things philosophers care to think about. Putnam’s error, Lewis is saying, was to not see how far his anti-realist argument spreads. Plurality, when read in light of Putnam’s Paradox argues for anti-realism about modality, and hence for all of metaphysics.

This clearly rebounds on the theological argument above. For if God exists, then theological ersatzism is true, and hence a (reductive) realism about modality is correct. But we should be anti-realists about modality, so we must be anti-realists about theology.

That line of reasoning seemed compelling, but it was delicate enough that I would have expected Lewis to offer some kind of confirmation that it was correct. And he does in Evil for Freedom’s Sake. There he argues that the various realist positions on God, classical theism and atheism, are reduced to an indecorous squabble over burdens of proof. The clear message is that the Putnamian anti-realism he defended in Putnam’s Paradox and expanded upon in Plurality should be extended to theology.

As I have been deceived before about the meanings of Lewis’s texts, I fear there may yet be much more meaning meandering beneath the meniscus. Anyone who can come up with a better explanation is more than encouraged, nay is entreated, to do so.

This post owes a lot to Brad DeLong’s work on Strauss, which taught me everything I know about textual interpretation. Thanks also to Michael Glanzburg for some helpful suggestions.

Where is Kansas?

From a quite interesting story on Vice-Presidential candidates

bq. Could newer, female governors, like Janet Napolitano of Arizona or Kathleen Sibelius of Kansas, bring support in Western states?

I think that presupposes that Kansas is Western. It’s from the New York Times, so take it with a grain of salt, but that seems inconsistent with Kansas being Mid-Western.

For what it’s worth, since the law doesn’t allow Jennifer Granholm to be the candidate, I favour Bill Richardson. But then I also favoured John Edwards for the top spot and that doesn’t seem to be working out, so hopefully I’m not jinxing Gov. Richardson.

I โ™ฅ Google

I didn’t understand something in Andy Clark’s forthcoming paper on Memento and the Extended Mind. The background is that Clark is talking about what conditions an external (to the brain) system must satisfy before we count them as part of our mind.

bq. (2) That any information thus retrieved be more-or-less automatically endorsed. It should not usually be subject to critical scrutiny (unlike the opinions of other people, for example). It should be deemed about as trustworthy as something retrieved clearly from biological memory.

bq. …Mobile access to Google would not [count -] it would fail condition (2).

Does Clark really not more-or-less automatically endorse what he finds on Google? This kind of radical scepticism seems plausible in principle, but it must be very hard to go about ordinary business that way.

Slightly more seriously, mobile access to Google is just about the coolest thing ever invented. I can’t use the old cliche here because it really is better than sliced bread. There’s just nothing quite like having semi-reliable information on any topic you can think of just at your fingertips.

Me Me Me Me Me Me Me

I’m in the Leiter Report again, this time for getting a job offer from the left coast. Brian also seems to know more about my future than I do ๐Ÿ™‚

UPDATE: Josh Parsons, seen in that link turning old, also has an offer from UC Davis, as well as Michael Glanzburg and moi. If Josh’s 30th birthday party was on April 18 2003, he must be very similar in age to me, unless the party was held at a completely different time to the actual birthday.

On a completely different topic, if you’re interested in epistemological issues in social sciences, take a look at John Quiggin’s post on data mining and the accompanying comments thread.

Me Me Me Me Me Me Me

I’m in the Leiter Report again, this time for getting a job offer from the left coast. Brian also seems to know more about my future than I do ๐Ÿ™‚

UPDATE: Josh Parsons, seen in that link turning old, also has an offer from UC Davis, as well as Michael Glanzburg and moi. If Josh’s 30th birthday party was on April 18 2003, he must be very similar in age to me, unless the party was held at a completely different time to the actual birthday.

On a completely different topic, if you’re interested in epistemological issues in social sciences, take a look at John Quiggin’s post on data mining and the accompanying comments thread.

Gender-Neutral Language

I hadn’t noticed this before, but Mark Kleiman has on his website a fun collection of aphorisms he co-collated with David Chu-wen Hsia. I normally stay away from aphorisms because they remind me of Wittgenstein and anything that reminds me of Wittgenstein makes me irritated, but there’s some good stuff here. What I really wanted to comment on though was the following.

bq. Masculine pronouns, and “man” for “human being,” occur throughout. English needs neuter personal pronouns, but currently lacks them. We canย’t do much about that now without great loss of force. (Those who doubt this sad fact are urged to try their hands at gender-neutralizing “Greater love hath no man than this: that he lay down his life for his friends.”) Our apologies to those offended.

That’s not the hardest challenge I’ve seen today. This isn’t a perfect translation into gender-neutral language, but it’s pretty close.

bq. No person has greater love than to lay down their life for their friends.

People who think ‘they’ is invariably a plural pronoun won’t like this, but they’re wrong for both etymological and ordinary language reasons.